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The Shire Green Web Connecting people & places . .
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Fuel Prices & Beaudesert Shire . . . some questions (4th Dec 2006) Answers & reminders will be posted as appropriate |
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To . . .
Dear Joy, Dave and Alastair, Ever heard that cliché movie line, "Give it to me straight Doc"? So these questions aren't meant to embarrass or undermine, rather they're posed in the spirit of waking us up to the dislocating changes in fuel availability we face. So, if you don't have the answers, let's admit it - and then get on with the job of working together as a community to find some. The stakes are too high not to. And like the mythical film character, we're confronting a situation Imposed by Nature. No escape. So here are my questions . . . 1. What explicit (or implicit), assumptions are there in The Whole of Shire Planning Process about the future pricing and availability of fuel? 2. Here's a quote from international oil expert Dr. Samsam Bakhtiari on July 11th 2006, in Sydney, giving evidence before a Senate Comittee Hearing : "The decline of global oil production seems now irreversible. It is bound to occur over a number of transitions, the first of which I have called transition 1, which has just begun in 2006. Transition 1 has a very benign gradient of decline, and it will take months before one notices it at all. But transition 2 will be far steeper, and each successive transition will show more pronounced declining gradients. My WOCAP model has predicted that over the next 14 years present global production of 81 million barrels per day will decrease by roughly 32 per cent, down to around 55 million barrels per day by the year 2020. Thus in the face of peak oil and its multiple consequences, which are bound to impact upon almost all aspects of our human standards of life, it seems imperative to get prepared to face all the inevitable shockwaves resulting from that. Preparation should be carried out on individual, familial, societal and national levels as soon as possible. Every preparative step taken today will prove far cheaper than any step taken tomorrow. I thank you for your attention during my opening statement, and I am ready now to try, to the best of my abilities, to reply to any questions that you have." What implications does that have for your current planning processes? 3. I'm also drawing your attention to this quote from the same Senate Comittee Hearing mentioned above, this time from Dr. Jago Dodson of the Griffiths University Urban Research Programme :- "Until the postwar period, housing development occurred effectively in unison with rail and tramways. It was after the postwar period that the private motor car gave households and individuals the capacity to travel almost anywhere at will within the city, and that enabled the extensive, often low-density, development you see in, for example, the North Beaudesert shire area of south-east Queensland." And invite you to note that Dr. Dodson also identifies Beaudesert Shire as an area of key risk and vulnerability to high fuel prices, in a academic report that can be down loaded HERE ("Oil Vulnerability in the Australian City"). What implications does this have for your current planning processes? 4. Are you aware of this 2006 statement from former USA President Bill Clinton:- "The Indians and Chinese are in this huge fight now to see who can get the most oil. We may be at a point of peak oil production. You may see $100 a barrel oil in the next two or three years." And this 2006 statement from Alan Greenspan, Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve of the United States from 1987 to 2006:- "Today world oil production stands at about 85 million barrels a day, and little excess capacity remains." What's your reaction? Questions to Peter Beattie, Premier of Queensland . . . from Kim Bax (Cedar Vale) Back to the top Dear Peter, As a Registered Nurse, I worked in a drug & alcohol de-tox unit for many years. So I learnt first hand the dangerous consequences of denying a problem. So in that spirit, I invite you to look at the questions (above), that I've posed my local council (Beaudesert Shire), and respond to them as well. Not your Minister Peter, not some public servant - but you. Why? Because they're are far too important for the Premier of our State to sidestep. As you know, I've also posed these outstanding questions to you (about oil depletion) - and I look forward to your reply on those as well. Best wishes, Kim Back to the top Questions to John Howard, Prime Minister of Australia . . . from Kim Bax (Cedar Vale) Back to the top Dear John, As a Registered Nurse, I worked in a drug & alcohol de-tox unit for many years. So I learnt first hand the dangerous consequences of denying a problem. So in that spirit, I invite you to look at the questions (above), that I've posed my local council (Beaudesert Shire), and respond to them as well. Not your Minister John, not some public servant - but you. Why? Because they're are far too important for the Prime Minister of our country to sidestep. As you know, I've also posed these outstanding questions to you (about oil depletion) - and I look forward to your reply on those as well. Best wishes, Kim Back to the top Specific response to the above questions by Dave Cockburn, local Beaudesert Shire (Div 3):- Back to the top
"I have informed you I have limited
time over this period and my priority is our WOSP where these issues are
being addressed. This is the process that will have future planning
benefits to address such issues as peak
oil etc. Here is a link for you to learn more on WOSP-
We have public consultation coming up
early next year on WOSP. Will you be making a submission and did you
give input to the framework SEQRP MLNB special investigation? I hope the links give you an idea of the work council is currently involved in with our shires future planning. The first time ever a council has made such a commitment to future planning to address the long term issues we face here.
Your input to this process via the appropriate ways available (refer to
links) is encouraged. Comments to your continual questions from
individual's such as me, you can then post on a web site is not going to
play much of a roll in the future planning processes now underway. I am
not interested in propagating cyber space and hope you understand my
position as stated in my opening remarks. Comment from Kim Bax, local councillor Dave Cockburn is still predicting massive local economic growth, in the face of a predicted 32% decline in global oil supplies by 2020, and severe warnings from the International Energy Agency , as well as warnings from Alan Greenspan and former USA President Bill Clinton. (Dave's editorial in the Jimboomba Times, Wed 6th Dec 2006, also HERE). In the face of these warnings, it's apparent we're facing clear and present danger from disrupted fuel supplies and spiralling prices. This is an urgent risk management problem that needs a clear eyed and comprehensive response ASAP. Nature, and the vagaries of fate, don't respect our neat time tables. Reply from Kay Elson, Federal Member for Forde (in relation to my questions to John Howard) Back to the top Dear Kim, Thankyou for your recent emails. As always, I appreciate you taking the time to bring your ongoing campaign to my attention. I have noted your comments and concerns and will be sure to share them with my colleagues in Canberra. With regard to your questions to the Prime Minister, the Hon. John Howard MP, I have forwarded a copy of your questions to him. I will be in touch as soon as I receive a response. I appreciate you keeping me up to date with your advertisements in the Jimboomba and Beaudesert Times. I certainly agree this is a great way to spread the word and this along with your website will go a long way to rallying local support. Kim, I commend you on your persistence in this matter. I wish you and your family all the best for a safe and happy festive season and as always, if I can be of any further assistance, please feel free to contact me. Yours sincerely Kay Elson MP Federal Member for Forde Back to the top A reply from Beaudesert Shire CEO Alastair Dawson (18th December 200), with a further response from Kim Bax Back to the top
Good morning Kim, Response from Kim Bax, 18th December 2006 Back to the top
Dear Alastair, Again, thankyou for your quick and in-depth response. It's very useful to continue the dialogue. And it certainly beats being ignored by my own local councillor for 10 weeks. I very strongly feel that you think I am "Alarmist." That is my honest appraisal. It was in no way meant to be derogatory to yourself. I think this latest comment of yours adequately illustrates this:- <<As I have previously indicated to you, I am somewhat more optimistic about mankind's ability to solve these problems than your doomsday scenarios would suggest, despite global politics.>> In the above snippet, the word "Alarmist" could be very neatly interchanged with your use of the word "Doomsday." Actually, I'm not into "Doomsday" scenarios - and I'm very optimistic about the abilities of the human race, but only if we face up to the very real challenges we face. My questions here (or just above):- http://www.theshiregreenweb.org/fuel.htm Are very valid, and require a valid and official response. Unless you can answer them, point by point, then it's reasonable that I (and many others), should assume that your reassurances are empty assertions. Where's your backing? Where's your research? These are not minor issues than can (and should), be brushed aside with no attention to the very real science I've given you. And I want my questions answered, clearly and rationally - point by point. Or is the real problem that you can't answer them? Your email gives me no confidence that Beaudesert Shire Council is in any way prepared for the very real risk-management issues we face. And no Alastair, your assertion is wrong. There is no global effort by Governments to address Peak Oil. If you feel you're correct, you're more than welcome to supply me with the references and links - and I'd be happy to publish them. But you won't find any. And Andrew McNamara MP backs this up, with this recent quote from Channel 9's "60 Minutes":- "ANDREW MCNAMARA: No-one that I have spoken to privately in the industries suggests that there's some magic bullet here and that we're suddenly going to find Saudi Arabia again. It's not going to happen. The issue here is that if we don't deal with this, then we start living a 20th century, then a 19th century, then an 18th century lifestyle. It doesn't have to be that way but that's where we're headed if we do nothing. TARA BROWN: And we're doing nothing right now? ANDREW MCNAMARA: At the moment, zip." Also, your belief that routine "Conservation" efforts by Beaudesert Shire Council will address the massive dislocations we face as the availability of oil declines frightens me. Do you have any idea what will happen to the price of oil as demand outstrips supply? That's the new territory we're entering. Please listen to (and watch), energy investment banker and former Bush energy advisor Matt Simmons (also a Republican for the record):- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bD-oDk4xXCk&mode=related&search= I also took the time to phone Dr. Colin Campbell in Ireland. As I've said before, he was recently featured by 4 Corners - and here's an in-depth Guardian (UK), article that should give you a very real feel for his expertise and integrity:- http://www.guardian.co.uk/life/feature/story/0,13026,1464050,00.html There's nothing to stop you calling him for a discussion. Let's face it Alastair, this man has given advice to the Australian Government, the USA Government and very senior bankers from all over the World. What rational reason is there for you not to take advantage of the very valuable insights he could give you? Other than a determination not to be told what to do by a woman with no official status (me)? Also, do you understand "Energy Return on Energy Invested"? It's one of the fundamental laws of the Universe. One that cannot be avoided. In practical terms, it means that although we can get energy from alternative sources, there's nothing that can or will replace the "Punch" we currently get from oil. This is not "Doomsday" stuff, it's the basic reality of the World we live in. It's a dangerous and misguided assumption to think that "They" or "Technology" are riding to the rescue. May I suggest something? On the 28th March next year, Prof Ian Lowe (Emeritus Prof of Science, Technology and Society at Griffith University & President of the Australian Conservation Foundation), will be at The Ethos Foundation:- http://www.theshiregreenweb.org/events.htm#26march2007 Why don't you make a point of going? Prof Lowe will be able to explain very clearly what I'm (unsuccessfully it seems), trying to get across. I would also draw your attention to the recent commentary from the International Energy Agency:- "The world is on a course that will lead it 'from crisis to crisis' unless governments act immediately to save energy and invest in nuclear and biofuels, the International Energy Agency warned on Tuesday. In an apocalyptic forecast, Claude Mandil, the agency’s executive director, said that our current path 'may mean skyrocketing prices or more frequent blackouts; can mean more supply disruptions, more meteorological catastrophes – or all these at the same time'. The IEA said that the oilfields on which Europe and the US had come to depend to reduce their reliance on the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would peak in the next five to seven years. These include those in Russia, the US, Mexico and Norway. According to this year’s World Energy Outlook, the IEA’s flagship publication, that would mean: 'Growing oil exports from the Middle East will focus attention on the world’s vulnerability to oil-supply disruptions, not least because the bulk of the additional exports will involve transport along maritime routes susceptible to piracy, terrorist attacks or accidents.' The three countries on which the world will depend most for its future oil supply, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq, are also among its most unstable. A similar problem is emerging in natural gas, with half of the world’s reserves found in Iran and Russia – countries that have used their energy resources as a diplomatic weapon." Link to IEA info supplied in this article:- http://www.theshiregreenweb.org/articles.htm#15dec2006 In other words Alastair, no lesser an authority than the International Energy Agency backs my concerns. Plus please check out all the links I've supplied in that piece (when you have time). And here is another quote from Andrew McNamara MP, recent chair of Queensland's Oil Vulnerability Task Force, that underlines the absolute urgency of the unprecedented situation we face:- " . . . it will be my recommendation that the report be put on the internet, and tabled in Parliament, and made widely available. My preference here is that we need a global response, and we need a national response, and then we need state and provincial responses, and then we need local, very much local responses, and sharing information is the best way to do that. Nobody's got time to reinvent the wheel. If there's good works being done by governments anywhere then we need to all be taking notes on that and moving quickly. We have, I think, a very tight timeframe. Australia is already in serious oil production decline. There is, I think, at most ten years before we are looking at global production decline. We have, I think, a ten year window where we've got some options to engage in vigorous local policy activity we can give ourselves a window of opportunity to deal, or get ready for, the severe bump when OPEC passes its production peak, but ten years is a pretty short timeframe to change the way we grow and deliver food, the way we design and build our homes and cities, the way we move ourselves and everything else in our societies around, and I think it will be the Great Challenge for our global civilization, how we confront this ten year opportunity." And here is a quote from the Australian Senate (an interim report of earlier this year):- "2.16 Peak oil proponents have criticised official estimates of future oil supply with detailed and plausible arguments. The Committee is not aware of any official agency publications which attempt to rebut the peak oil arguments point by point in similar detail. 2.17 In the Committee.s view the possibility of a peak of conventional oil production before 2030, even if it is no more than a possibility, should be a matter of concern. Exactly when it occurs (which is very uncertain) is not the important point. Australia should be planning for it now, as Sweden is doing with its plan to be oil free by 2020." Finally, I am at a complete loss to understand the adamant refusal of Beaudesert Shire Council to take advantage of key expert input, in the same way as Redlands has. In the absence of any other explanation, I can only take it as an arrogant and obstinate determination not to be "Told what to do." Hopefully though, we can begin to build bridges of understanding. It's vital for this community that we do. Regards, Kim Back to the top Reply from Beaudesert Shire Council to these questions above, 10 January 2007:- Back to the top Dear Kim, Re: Whole of Shire Planning Process Thankyou for your enquiry regarding the Whole of Shire Planning (WOSP) process. As you are no doubt aware, the opinions on future availability of oil vary widely, but the possibility of shortages cannot be ignored. In planning our future cities, construction of which will commence in the next 10 years, current technologies must be considered with an "eye" to the future. consequently the planning being undertaken as part of WOPS, which is being done in consultation with State Agencies, has regard for factors which would be affected by oil shortages. Planning of our new cities will have regard for provision of roads, public transport including networks of bikeways and walking paths. Adequate provision of land for enterprise will also be an important aspect of structure planning to enable maximisation of local employment. Further information on the South East Queensland Infrastructure Plan and Program, Structure Planning and Master PLanning can be obtained by visiting the Office of Urban Management website as per enclosure. Your faithfully, Graeme Rogers Manager Strategic Planning Further response from Kim Bax, 12 January 2006:- Dear Graeme, Thankyou for the above. However, it completely sidesteps and ignores my two very specific questions - to which I want two very specific answers, e.g. these were:- 1. What explicit (or implicit), assumptions are there in The Whole of Shire Planning Process about the future pricing and availability of fuel? 2. Here's a quote from international oil expert Dr. Samsam Bakhtiari on July 11th 2006, in Sydney, giving evidence before a Senate Comittee Hearing : "The decline of global oil production seems now irreversible. It is bound to occur over a number of transitions, the first of which I have called transition 1, which has just begun in 2006. Transition 1 has a very benign gradient of decline, and it will take months before one notices it at all. But transition 2 will be far steeper, and each successive transition will show more pronounced declining gradients. My WOCAP model has predicted that over the next 14 years present global production of 81 million barrels per day will decrease by roughly 32 per cent, down to around 55 million barrels per day by the year 2020. Thus in the face of peak oil and its multiple consequences, which are bound to impact upon almost all aspects of our human standards of life, it seems imperative to get prepared to face all the inevitable shockwaves resulting from that. Preparation should be carried out on individual, familial, societal and national levels as soon as possible. Every preparative step taken today will prove far cheaper than any step taken tomorrow. I thank you for your attention during my opening statement, and I am ready now to try, to the best of my abilities, to reply to any questions that you have." What implications does that have for your current planning processes? I am formally requesting that either you, Joy Drescher, Alastair Dawson or my own councillor Dave Cockburn replies to me again - and this time, tabulates their reply questions 1 and 2 (like I have above). In this way, maybe very important specific responses can be obtained to very important specific questions. To elaborate (so there is a clear understanding of my request), your current reply does not tell me "What explicit (or implicit), assumptions are there in The Whole of Shire Planning Process about the future pricing and availability of fuel?" - is there any? And if so, what is it? Secondly, what implications does a 32% drop in global oil production by 2020 have your plans? And again, my second question has not been answered. I'm sorry Graeme, but I will not allow you (or anyone on council), to write me a letter which completely avoids my very specific questions - and then claim that "Answers" to my questions have been given. They haven't. You've sent me a letter, but my specific questions have been ignored. And as I wrote, my questions are not meant to embarrass or undermine - but if you don't have a clue how to respond, then let's face up honestly to this and work together as a community to address it. Because quite honestly Graeme, in the end reality isn't going to let you do anything BUT that - and neither am I. You also say:- "As you are no doubt aware, the opinions on future availability of oil vary widely." But no Graeme, the opinions don't vary widely. There is not a single professional commentator on the planet that denies an imminent peak, then irreversible decline, in the future availability of oil. The only disagreement is in the timing of the peak - from those who say it occurred late last year, to those who put it 30 years in the future. However, the track record of those with the most optimistic assumptions is not good (to put it mildly), as this extract from a January 2007 article by Prof Richard Heinberg shows:- "Peak Oil activists adhere to more pessimistic resource estimates and production forecasts, and it is tempting to think that this is partly because doing so makes their case appear stronger. However, the track record of prediction by the optimists is not good:
Link HERE Also, in December 2005 World oil production hit an all time high (shown in the official production figures) - and has been unable to top that record (again, as shown in the official production figures), as this quote illustrates:- "Why do opinions still differ on the important issue of when the oil peak will occur, with estimates ranging from "anytime now" to "in about thirty years"? The oil industry banker Matthew Simmons has been saying for some time that the world will only know for sure when the peak has happened by looking "in the rear-view mirror" months after it has taken place. Commenting last October after the release of figures showing that the world supply of crude oil had declined to 83.98 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2006 after hitting 84.35 million bpd in the fourth quarter of 2005. Simmons said: "If you basically have another six to ten months of that decline lasting, then I think for certain we would look back and say, 'Guess what? We actually reached a sustainable peak in crude oil production in December 2005.'" Link HERE
Also, your response completely ignores the issue of food production.
So Graeme, can you tell me how my kids and grand kids will feed
themselves when global oil production has dropped by 32% - considering
this
recent announcement from Robert M Gates (newly appointed USA
Secretary of Defence):- . . . and when our current industrial food production system takes 9 calories of fossil fuel to produce 1 calorie of food? So, in a nutshell Graeme, not only will reality (and me), not allow you to ignore my very specific questions - it is the height of irresponsibility to do so. And quite honestly, this inane exchange of the usual political fudging and side stepping would be funny (worthy of an episode of "Yes Minister"), were the outcomes not so deadly serious - and so deadly urgent. So let's get off this stupid merry-go-round of letters - and get down to looking reality straight in the eye. I'll be phoning my own local councillor Dave Cockburn very soon about a 2 hour education session for Beaudesert Shire councillors on this issue. He agreed to an education session of suitable length before Christmas (in writing) - and if Redland Shire Councillors can spare the time (which they have), I see no reason why Beaudesert Shire cannot do the same. And let's face it, my local councillors do have the time to fly to Melbourne for education and training (according to local press reports). Finally, you mention public transport, bike ways and walking paths. There are zero of these facilities available to me in Orion Road at Cedar Vale - and as far as I'm aware (though you're welcome to enlighten me), zero specific plans to provide me with any. In fact, your "Planning processes" have transformed Orion Road into an almost straight (in places), racing track. And we all know what happens to "Speed limits" on straight, unobstructed roads. And on my street, this has happened with a vengeance. There are zero traffic calming features, and in my wholly residential area, you're still allowed to speed along at 60 klms, rather than 50klms (which it should be). Planning in my estate has been wholly and solely for the car. The safety of cyclists and pedestrians has not even been given a nod. I no longer allow my 14 year old daughter to cycle in her own street. That's what your "Planning processes" have done. Forgive me if I'm cynical, but I'm going by the evidence of my own eyes and own experience. Regards, Kim" Back to the top Reply from Gary Hardgrave MP (Federal), in relation to these questions to John Howard on Oil Depletion (dated 8 Jan 2007) - received 16 Jan 2007:- Back to the top
Dear Kay, Thankyou for your letter of 5 December 2006 to the Prime Minister of behalf of Mrs. Kim Bax of 77 Orion Road, Cedar Vale, Qld 4285 regarding oil depletion. The Prime Minister has asked me to reply on his behalf. I previously wrote to you on the 12 September 2006 responding to Mrs. Bax's concerns about global oil supplies. A copy of my letter is attached. I consider that letter addresses Mrs. Bax's concerns in regards to oil depletion. Thankyou for bringing Mrs. Bax's concerns to the attention of the Prime Minister. Yours sincerely, Gary Hardgrave Response to Gary Hardgrave MP from Mrs. Kim Bax (19 Jan 2007):-
From:- Mrs. Kim Bax, 77 Orion Road, Cedar Vale,
Qld 4285 Further email to Gary Hardgrave MP from Mrs. Kim Bax (18 Feb 2007):- Back to the top Dear Gary, Almost a month ago on the 19th Feb 2007, I sent you a very pithy email in regard to your "Yes Minister" response to me, re the vital issue of Global oil depletion:- http://www.theshiregreenweb.org/fuel.htm#hardgrave Since then, The Queensland Times (Ipswich, Qld), has run a very prominent article on the subject, scanned and reproduced here (5 Feb 2007):- http://www.theshiregreenweb.org/articles.htm#5feb A local council in Sydney has passed and accepted "The Oil Depletion Protocol" (12 Feb 2007):- http://www.theshiregreenweb.org/articles.htm#12feb2007 A former Liberal voter in Pine Rivers, Captain Cameron Leckie, has publicly taken his local council to task for their serious lack of attention to the problem (18 Feb 2007):- http://www.theshiregreenweb.org/articles.htm#18feb2007 And one of the foremost oil experts on the planet, Matt Simmons:- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthew_Simmons . . . has openly told Bloomberg that TSHHTF (well and truly), in regard to Global oil production:- http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2239 Plus Senator Heffernan's summing up re the just completed "Inquiry into Australia's future oil supply and alternative transport fuels":- http://www.aph.gov.au/senate/committee/rrat_ctte/oil_supply/report/index.htm . . . scandalously avoids mention of Dr. Samsam Bakhtiari's prediction of a 32% decline in global oil production by 2020:- http://www.aph.gov.au/hansard/senate/commttee/S9515.pdf . . . and relies on the notoriously unreliable (and much more optimistic), predictions of The International Energy Agency - whose historically mistaken forecasts are well and truly documented by Prof Richard Heinberg in this January 2007 article (within the section titled "Differing Perspectives"):- http://energybulletin.net/24529.html Plus here's the comments of ASPO Australia on the Australian Senate inquiry:- http://www.aspo-australia.org.au/content/view/82/1/ . . . with a short quote here:- "ASPO-Australia
calls for an Intergovernmental Panel on Oil Depletion to be formed under
the existing IPCC structure. It should provide a science-based view of
the world oil production data, as free as possible from the political
constraints which have influenced the Australian Senate report and also
the US Government and IEA oil production estimates. So what is it Gary? Is the Australian Government stupid? Or deliberately avoidant? Or do you well and truly understand the reality we face, but have plans you daren't put before the Australian public? What's your response to the challenge from ASPO Australia? And what's your response to me, a mother whose blood runs cold when she thinks about the future of her kids? Do you really think any parent would let you get away with this kind of avoidant (and/or deliberate), fudging of this life threatening issue? Get back to me Gary please, sooner rather than later. Regards, Kim cc -
Dr. Colin Campbell, Ireland Reply to the above from Gary Hardgrave MP, 19 February 2007:- Back to the top Thanks
for your email.. Further response from Kim Bax, 20 Feb 2007:-
Gary whatever the ins and outs of who signed what for who, the point is
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Joy
Drescher, Mayor of Beaudesert Shire
Dave
Cockburn, local councillor (Beaudesert Shire), Div 3
Alastair
Dawson, CEO of Beaudesert Shire Council